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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.