Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
