Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”