Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
